THE
POST
PATTERN
Published by the Impeccables since 1975 / Rebooted in 2022 / Week 16 Edition
Merry Christmas!
Contrary to what it may appear outside (seriously, does anyone else feel like they've moved to Seattle?), the calendar does indeed say we've entered the holiday season. The staff at the Post Pattern would like to wish all of our readers a very Merry Christmas and Happy New Year! As we go to press, the Packers take on the lowly Carolina Panthers on Christmas Eve so Packers fans are wishing for some holiday cheer in the form of a "W" in their stockings. With all the ups and downs of the season, the Packers STILL have visions of a playoff appearance dancing in their heads. Does Santa agree and grant their wish? Or is it more likely they've earned a lump of coal? We'll find out soon!
We don't have a Buboltz Kids Sports update this session, but we've been hearing some good things and will provide a recap next edition!
**As we click "publish", the Packers JUST knocked off the Panthers in a game that was way too close for comfort at the end**
Steve Simmons Closing In On Title
With just three weeks left in our 2023 picking challenge, Steve Simmons continues to lead the pack. Simba enjoys a 7 pick lead over 2nd place pickers Amy Wilma and Noah Vanderhoof (who are tied for the lead in the Packer Nation division). Jack Wilma has taken a slim lead over cousin Blake Vanderhoof in the juniors division, while Collin and Nick are tied in the Impeccables group.
Unless Amy or Noah can pull out a Christmas miracle, we think it's probably safe for Steve to start picking out a spot on his shelves for the vaunted traveling trophy.
Should He Stay or Should He Go?
Any Packers fan who has been paying attention to this season likely knows who the title of this article refers to. There is perhaps no individual within the Packers organization who has received more criticism than defensive coordinator Joe Barry. While many fans were surprised or disappointed Barry was brought back for a third season as the team's defensive signal caller, head coach Matt LaFluer has stood by his man throughout the season.
During the Joe Barry era (2021-present), the Packers have ranked 13th, 17th, and now 18th in points allowed per game. Barry's unit has especially regressed in the run game. In his first season, the unit was 11th against the run, but that fell to 26th in 2022, and 30th this season. In the passing game, Barry's group ranked 23rd, 27th, and 22nd in yards allowed through the air.
Yardage statistics can be a bit misleading. Not all yards allowed are equal. For example, if a defense gives up 7 yards on 3rd and 12, that is obviously less impactful than giving up 7 yards on 1st and 10. For this reason, Expected Points per Attempt (EPA) has been increasingly used in the NFL to get a better gauge on how a team or individual performs per play. GB ranks 26th in defensive EPA overall (26th vs the pass and 16th vs the rush). In a stat that should surprise no Packer fan this year, GB ranks 31st in EPA for 3rd and long situations.
So statistically, it appears GB is at best a middling defense, but quite possibly a bottom tier club based on performance. The question becomes, is this Joe Barry's fault? GM Brian Gutekunst has fielded a roster that includes 8 first round picks. He has made free agent signings including Devondre Campbell, Keisean Nixon, Rasul Douglas (since traded) and others. The club has clearly made an investment on this side but the ROI is lacking.
Is Gutekunst drafting players that don't fit the scheme GB chooses (or is forced) to play? Does Barry lack the ability to adjust his approach based on the players he has and the individual game situation they are faced? How much blame should individual players face? How do we weigh injuries in the secondary?
Joe Barry may very likely be held accountable at the end of this season due to the unit's continued struggles, and many Packers fans will rejoice. To this fan though, it appears the problems are deeper than simply firing a defensive coordinator. Factors like the organization structure (Murphy's decision to have both GM and HC report to the President), the culture in Green Bay, and the realities of the salary cap situation could all have an impact. Now that Green Bay has seemingly found a "keeper" in Jordan Love, my Christmas wish this year is that Green Bay brass figures out what ails the defense to build around him for the 2024 season and beyond.
Heard in the Crowd
Tommy Devito joined a long list of struggling QBs who have had career days vs Green Bay in recent memory
Baker Mayfield joined a long list of struggling...you get the rest.
Welcome to the...Soggy Tundra? Rain in December is going to take some getting used to.
Green Bay's young pass catchers are growing up fast
Aaron Jones is a difference maker
Jordan Love is on pace to throw for over 4k yards and 30 TDs...and hasn't had a pass catcher go over 100 yards in a single game.
Letters to the Editor
A few individuals questioned the authenticity of last week's letter to the editor. As we have yet to receive any fan letters, we reserve the right to fill this space as we fit in the future. Options being considered include advertising space, crossword puzzles, and funny dog videos.
